What are North Korea’s Political and Economic Goals for 2024, and How Will This Affect Its Current Relationships with South Korea and Russia?

North Korea’s ongoing economic strain due to UN sanctions has been exacerbated by the country’s weak economy following the Covid outbreak. It is anticipated that North Korea will continue to face severe food shortages, famine, and other economic hardships in 2024. Resolving these humanitarian issues has become one of the country’s prior goals for the year.

Politically, the country is expected to display increased hostility in its interactions with other countries throughout the year, heightening international relationships. Kim has constantly turned down meeting requests from Biden while significantly increasing the number of tests conducted since 2021 – surpassing the figures recorded under the previous US administration.

Experts predict that North Korea would likely escalate provocations towards Washington, especially as the US prepares for its presidential elections scheduled in November. It is predicted that this means maintaining or intensifying its military pressure campaign on both South Korea and America. Kim’s recent statement that the South is their “primary foe” and that unification with them is impossible underscores this deteriorating relationship and implies that the implementation of hardline policies would persist until the end of the election.

To determine the long-term relationships between North Korea, South Korea, and the U.S., the election outcome would be a pivotal factor to consider. A Trump victory could potentially result in a decrease in provocations towards Washington. However, it may intensify the South Korean discussions of obtaining nuclear weapons to confront the North.

On the other hand, North Korea’s relations with Russia is seeing an optimistic turn. In exchange for North Korea’s military assistance to support Russia’s position in the Ukraine War, it is anticipated that Russia would provide North Korea with cheap or free oil, gas, and grain, contributing to improving the country’s falling economy and resolving the aforementioned humanitarian issues. 

In summary, North Korea’s economic and political goals for 2024 are poised to significantly affect the country’s relationships with South Korea and Russia.