Oil Prices Are Putting Nations in Tough Situations
Economics

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As Putin and Russia continue to show a hostile stance against Ukraine, Exxonmobil has fully pulled out their assets from their Sakhalin-1 oil project. Despite Exxonmobil's efforts to maintain its relationship with the Russians, the Russian government unilaterally terminated its interests in the Sakhalin-1 project which is now run by a Russian operator. As the Ukrainian conflict has caused a major predicament for Western countries and Russia, oil-related issues have also been exacerbated. Although this issue may seem minor, it will be one of the first issues that need to be resolved, and it is not an easy one.
Since 1966, the first time oil production was formally measured around the world, the Soviet Union or Russia has always been in the top 3 of oil production around the world. Because of their geographical location and cheap pricing, countries from the EU and Asia have been relying on Russian fossil fuels for decades. China and the EU bloc are primary consumers of Russian oil exports, as they were responsible for 74.5% of Russian fossil fuel exports ranging from February 24th to June 4th of 2022. Although the EU has tried to decrease its exports from Russia, this reduction will inevitably spike oil prices and therefore damage the EU's economy. From February 24th to June 4th of 2022, the EU imported $59.6 Billion worth of crude oil from Russia, which was planned to be reduced. However as shown on the graph, a huge price spike is clearly shown from March, proving that the EU has been, and will be heavily reliant on Russian Imports. Therefore this places the EU on a political tightrope where they have to balance out their relationship with NATO and still somehow maintain oil exports to prevent an economic crisis. The crisis continues to affect countries like Korea, as they partially rely on Russian oil as well, but is crucial to NATO as well.
This oil crisis has led multiple countries into an imbroglio where they still have to rely on Russian fossil fuel to prevent a possible economic downfall, but also have to rely on Western nations who are responsible for the country's exports and imports. The last oil crisis in 1973 occurred when Western nations assisted Israel during the Arab-Israeli war, which can be implied that it is a poor repetition of history. The fossil fuel embargo in 1973 only lasted a year, as the Western nations all fell into heavy economic decline with oil shortages. Therefore, if the Ukrainian conflict continues to trail on, the EU and other nations that relied on Russian fossil fuel will suffer unless they find an agreement.
However, the global status seems to be that this conflict will probably never reach an agreement, or take a very long period to reach. Consequently, countries that have previously relied on Russian fossil fuels must take immediate action to alter their portion of fossil fuel. Nevertheless, OPEC continues to show its stance with high oil prices and cuts of production oil, making it even more challenging for nations in need of oil. OPEC's statement about the protection of their oil reserve amplifies the damage done to the nations who are trying to reduce Russian oil imports. Meanwhile, Russia continues to discount its oil prices as it is selling at a 30% discount rate
2023/11/27

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Jihoo Shim
Economics

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