India’s enthroning from China: The Next Emerging Economic Powerhouse

April 2023 marks a timeline in global society where the global order of two Asian countries shifted massively. India has surpassed China in its total estimated population, taking the crown for the most populous country in the world.

China’s eventual decline in population growth has been documented ever since the “one-child-policy” of the 1980s that restricted Chinese couples from having more than one child. The policy, applied in an effort to grow China’s economy, drastically reduced the country’s birth rates. This trend has remained even after the abolishment of the policy, with the birth rate continuing to plunge with 1.2 babies per woman in 2022, while the elderly population swelled. (VOA News)
Meanwhile, India’s population has met its all-time-high, because in contrast to the steady decline of birth rates, the South Asian country’s fertility rates reached replacement levels of over 2, meaning its population rate is sustained.(NPR)
What this actually means for the two highest populated countries is that one is expecting an emerging labor superforce, while the latter grapples with a weakening one.

The ramifications of this demographic change, however, extends above numeral rankings. Previously, as China had the largest number of working middle-aged demographics, it was the largest contributor to the global markets. For the labor market, numerous foreign firms depended on Chinese labor to manufacture their goods, while also a pool of consumers purchased imported goods from abroad.
Moreover, China has embedded itself deeply into the global supply chain through its inexpensive rural workforce. As the Covid-19 pandemic demonstrated, a cut off from China’s labor-based manufacturing led to a shortage of goods such as autochips for automobiles, akin to a “famine”. (The Wall Street Journal) Thus, a decrease in China's cheap labor will lead to certain products being more expensive. India’s ascent as the world’s largest workforce, however, will present a mostly distinct scenario from China’s. As their workforce is young, thriving and educated, making it unable to directly substitute China's cheap manufacturing force.

India is expected to keep its economy growing, with an active working population, as shown by a leaping 7.2% growth from 2022-3.(PIB) This economic superpower will allow them to play a more critical role in global affairs. Thus, as India affirms its status as the next economic powerhouse, it is expected to gain the capacity to influence international agendas, diplomatic agreements, and contribute to the economy’s dynamics with its sheer size of the workforce.
signify a pivotal moment in global dynamics, with India surpassing China as the world's most populous country. The consequences of China's long-standing one-child policy are evident in its declining population growth, impacting its labor force and global economic contributions. Meanwhile, India's burgeoning population, characterized by youth, vitality, and education, positions it as a distinct economic powerhouse, poised to exert influence on international affairs and contribute significantly to the global economy in the years to come.

To conclude, the coming years will signify a pivotal change in global dynamics, as China’s cheap workforce dwindles, directly contributing to the increase in prices and affordability of vital manufactured products. Meanwhile India’s rise as the next major workforce will mark a change in global economics dynamics, being the next decision-maker for foreign markets.